Of the eight states voting on a amendment banning gay marriage this November, Wisconsin is now considered the only place where activists might be able to defeat the amendment. If the amendment was defeated, it would be a first after 20 successful anti-gay marriage amendments.

If there's a chance to break the streak on Nov. 7, it might be in Wisconsin, where activists believe that support from unions, college students and church leaders - coupled with hoped-for conservative apathy - could enable them to finally overcome the string of losses.

Supporters of banning gay marriage remain confident of victory, but optimism also is high in the ranks of Fair Wisconsin, a coalition fighting the proposed amendment since it surfaced in the Legislature in 2004. Large labor unions, many religious leaders, and top Democratic officials - including Gov. Jim Doyle - have spoken out against the measure.

"This could be the state where we beat this thing," said Fair Wisconsin campaign chief Mike Tate. "I'm not saying it's easy, but we've got the right ingredients on the table."

The head of the rival campaign, Julaine Appling of Vote Yes For Marriage, said her side may wind up being outspent and out-advertised, but she believes Fair Wisconsin's confidence is misplaced.

"It's a gross misunderstanding of the people of Wisconsin," she said. "They are good solid stock. They understand that marriage is a good public institution - it's appropriate to protect it as the union of a man and a woman exclusively."

There have been no major opinion polls since mid-August, when a survey showed Appling's "Yes" side with 48 percent support, compared to 40 percent against the amendment. Tate says the gap is narrowing as undecided voters tilt against the measure; Appling believes the final result will be in line with Michigan and Ohio, where similar measures prevailed with roughly 60 percent support in 2004.

via 365gay.com

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